As Nigeria moves towards the 2027 presidential election, a fresh political projection has placed President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate Peter Obi.
The Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, Lagos, in its assessment of the current political landscape, projected that Tinubu would win 20 states if the election were held under the prevailing circumstances.
Atiku was projected to win nine states, while Obi was expected to secure eight states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
PIG, however, stressed that the projection was only a snapshot of the current political situation and should not be interpreted as a prediction of the 2027 election outcome.
“If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage,” the group said.
It added that Nigeria’s political landscape remained fluid, with alliances, defections, candidates, running mates and economic conditions capable of changing the current calculations.
Tinubu was projected to win all six South-West states, including Lagos, as well as Kano, giving him a strong presence across both the South and North.
PIG said the economy could be the biggest factor in the election, noting that improvements in living conditions could benefit the incumbent, while persistent hardship could strengthen the opposition.
Atiku’s projected nine-state victory is concentrated largely in the northern region. PIG said his major challenge would be to expand his support beyond the North and build a broader national coalition.
Obi, meanwhile, was projected to win eight states and the FCT, with Edo among the states placed in his column. PIG said his prospects would depend largely on his ability to expand his support base and build stronger political structures and alliances.
The group said issues such as insecurity, unemployment, inflation, food and fuel prices and the general cost of living would also shape voters’ decisions.
PIG reiterated that its projection was not a verdict on the 2027 election.
“Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost,” it stated.
