…How Jagaban is playing chess while the opposition is playing ludo
By Ope BANWO (Mayor of Fadeyi)
In my considered opinion, there is something about Osun State and Jagaban that Nigerian political analysts keep missing.
Osun is rarely the whole game.
Osun is often a piece on a much bigger chessboard.
And if you spend all your time celebrating who “won” or “lost” Osun in any election cycle without asking what the result makes possible three moves later in the general election following it, you may completely misunderstand the game being played.
That is why I call what we are witnessing: The Osun Opening Gambit.
In chess, a gambit is when a player deliberately gives up material — usually a pawn, rook, or even queen — because the seeming sacrifice creates a stronger strategic position later.
The amateur sees the lost pawn and celebrates. Meanwhile, the master player is already looking at checkmating his king.
In my considered opinion born out of watching Jagaban in action for over 27 years, whether you love Tinubu or hate him, one thing I have consistently said about the man is this: Baba understands political chess. He is indeed the greatest political strategist Nigeria has ever seen.
Of course, I would be drunk to put him ahead Awolowo in most respects, but on political strategy, he is definitely a superior player to Chief Awolowo, the indisputable G.O.A.T. of Nigerian politicians since independence. Awolowo was the most visionary and most respected politician the West and Nigeria has ever produced in my own books
But as great as he was, the Great Awo did not have the ruthless cunning and political strategic mindset to make the stars align for him to seize Aso Rock (and Nigeria is the worse off for it). Yet, Jagaban with all his seeming baggage did it almost effortlessly to the naked eye.
Love him or hate him, Jagaban is a deadly political strategist. Like Trump, he can reduce the opposition to tears with one well-chosen sentence that he would not even bother to explain. Example: His famous, “All those working for Peter Obi in Labour will labour in vain ni.” As an Obidient then in 2023, that one sentence reset my brain and made me rethink what the heck I was doing in a Labour Party with zero organization or serious strategy to take power… and I painfully realized I was indeed labouring in vain. (In the whole world, maybe only Donald Trump is more deadly to his political foes with one-liners than Jagaban.
But I digress.
As Jagaban keeps elevating his political chess game, his opponents too often appear stuck playing political Ludo.
Back to Osun political history: Osun has been a useful pawn before
Go back through history.
When Nuhu Ribadu ran for President under the Action Congress in 2011, Osun was the only state he won.
Think about that politically.
Your presidential candidate gets thoroughly beaten nationally including in Lagos, but somehow walks away with the alleged ancestral home territory of the political machine behind his candidacy
A nice consolation prize after Jagaban had allegedly sold out his own candidate to the opposition for whatever his strategic goal was at the time (otherwise, how do you explain a Jagaban candidate losing in Lagos but winning in Osun?). A pawn survives. The larger relationships remain intact.
Then fast-forward to 2022/2023.
Oyetola loses Osun despite Jagaban’s alleged blood brother being the one running for Governor. Oyetola challenges the result in court with a devastating legal argument that could have negative repercussions for the rigging lawsuits against Jagaban by the Peter Obi legal team.
The tribunal initially gives him victory. Then the appellate process ultimately restores Adeleke in a strange way that made people like me suspect that Jagaban deliberately “threw that game” in order to win the ‘Super Bowl’ later in his own presidential election case.
Be patient and follow my thoughts for a second…
See, what fascinated me was the potential intersection between the arguments being made by Oyetola about electoral accreditation, election rigging and vote stealing at the governorship level and the legal arguments in the much bigger presidential litigation that was coming behind it.
As a good player knows, sometimes in chess, winning one argument today can create a precedent that becomes very inconvenient tomorrow. And Jagaban had a much bigger prize ahead: Aso Rock.
If Oyetola’s legal argument on accreditation and how his votes were allegedly hijacked had been allowed to stand, it could have made it easier for Peter Obi to make a similar argument to establish his own case against Jagaban at the Supreme Court later. So, the alleged thinking was no way Oyetola’s legal argument was going to be allowed to become precedent.
So, as many legal-political watchers predicted, the intersection of the arguments made it fascinating… but the Master again allegedly sacrifices Osun, and his alleged brother Oyetola was sacrificed as a pawn for the greater move later. Oyetola lost, and the legal argument therefore could not be sustained as precedent later by Peter Obi in the presidential case.
The whole alleged move was so subliminal that very few analysts saw the sleight of hand. Most others were apparently too focused on Jagaban’s left hand in Osun in 2023 to notice the knockout punch loading in the right hand. I was glad then to read some deep legal minds write about the feint at the time, and that reassured me that I was not just hallucinating about the legal connection between those two cases.
So, while everybody was looking at Osun, some of us were looking at Abuja. Jagaban then ended up closing the deal to take Aso Rock in one of the most lopsided Supreme Court victories ever. His Dream Team of lawyers literally obliterated Peter Obi’s Team. Game over. Aso Rock keys given to Jagaban without fanfare or fireworks.
Now here comes Osun again as we head to 2027
This is where my Fadeyi antenna started vibrating.
Before this latest Osun political test, my argument was simple: Watch Osun carefully. Because APC losing an election in Osun could actually become politically useful to Tinubu going into 2027.
Sounds crazy? Not if you understand chess.
Now ask yourself, what are some of the biggest fears of the opposition going into 2027? They are:
INEC.
BVAS.
Result transmission.
Federal influence.
Institutional manipulation.
Rigging.
So, what better political answer than to produce an election where the President’s own party loses and then say: “You see? If Tinubu controls INEC, how did APC lose Osun?”
Also as the election happened, Adeleke of Accord publicly endorsed Tinubu for second term and I screamed that the fix is already in. Jagaban already struck before the parties even went to war in the gubernatorial race and Oyetola and his stooge candidate were too dumb to see it (or as I suspect maybe Oyetola was briefed and it was his candidate that was clueless and didn’t know he already lost before a vote was cast).
You can see Minister Keyamo already posting about ‘agreement is agreement at just a few minutes ago on his twitter page. The insiders know. It’s the Ludo players who are clueless
Even Adeleke himself just reaffirmed his endorsement of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu for second term as part of his acceptance speech. In order words, ‘agreement is agreement’. You all be playing o.
Securing Adeleke’s endorsement was Jagaban’s intro before started. Don’t be surprised if Gov Adeleke is even chosen to head Jagaban’s 2nd term campaign in Osun. Jagaban is that crafty.
My people, welcome to the next leg of the Osun State Opening Gambit. I am going to call it: The “born-again rigger” defence
Watch the talking points that may follow and which my good friend Sola Salako, an APC loyalist to the core, already started sharing today on her Facebook wall: “INEC has proved its independence. This proves democracy is not dead. Baba is not pursuing a one-party agenda. Now nobody can complain that INEC is not independent of Jagaban… bla bla bla.”
Some are already following up that opening memo with “President Tinubu allowed the people’s votes to count in Osun, so you can see he has no plans to rig.”
“APC accepted the will of the people, so Peter Obi can’t accuse APC of being anti-democratic.”
“This proves to the opposition once and for all that 2027 will be free and fair.”
And my personal favorite? Someone said “If Tinubu wanted to rig elections, APC could have easily won Osun.”
Beautiful argument.
Simple Conclusion.
Powerful imagery.
Easy to sell.
And politically very useful.
Meanwhile, the opposition and the people may start relaxing and “lose guard” about concern for free and fair elections in 2027. Which is the whole point of the gambit in the first place.
International observers may take notes and think Nigeria is finally on board with free and fair elections.
Civil society may praise improvements and be less prepared.
Everybody starts feeling comfortable.
And somewhere inside Fadeyi, one troublesome Mayor will be shouting: My people, don’t lose guard o!
In my opinion, the greatest trick of a good magician is not hiding what he is doing.
It is making you watch the wrong hand while the other hand is busy making the “magic” moves.
That brings me to my main problem with the opposition
Let’s forget Jagaban for one minute and ask a profound question: What exactly is the opposition doing to take power in 2027?
Where is the nationwide election-defense infrastructure?
Where are the trained polling agents?
Where is the ward-by-ward organization? Where is the parallel results collation system?
Where is the legal war room?
Where is the technology infrastructure?
Where is the voter mobilization machinery? Where is the serious coalition-building?
Where is the strategy for protecting votes from polling unit to final declaration?
The opposition led by Peter Obi in NDC did not even field a candidate in this 2027 dress rehearsal in Osun State! Atiku and the PDP just allowed Accord and APC to battle it out with a lackluster candidate. Both of them didn’t really show up for the pre-season games, and later they will complain of being rigged out.
Fact is, you cannot defeat a chess grandmaster by shouting: “He is cheating!” You have to learn how to play the bloody game.
Unfortunately, our opposition continues to play soccer like alakans — with apologies to Dagrin and that unforgettable Democracy song.
Everybody in opposition wants to become President instead of all of them borrowing a page from Jagaban’s 2023 playbook and coalesce around in d a candidate with the momentum (Peter Obi), the same way Tinubu strategically got the opposition to bet everything on Buhari who was the hot hand then.
The opposition is amassing followers on X, where many of the Twitter warriors don’t even have voter cards or won’t show up in the sun for their candidates in February.
The bitter truth for the opposition is that everybody can trend hashtags. Everybody can organize rallies. But elections are ultimately won through organization, not vibes.
Polling unit by polling unit. Ward by ward. LGA by LGA. State by state.
If you are not organized at ALL these levels, you WILL lose, no matter the number of supporters you believe you have. Apparently, Peter Obi has not learnt the big lesson of 2023, when he could not even field official polling agents in half of the polling booths nationwide.
Where was the rehearsal?
If you genuinely believe 2027 is the battle for Nigeria’s political future, then every major election before 2027 should be treated as a full-dress rehearsal.
You test your people. You test your technology. You test your polling agents. You test your lawyers.
You test your collation system and test your rapid-response teams.
You test your ability to detect irregularities IN REAL TIME.
You don’t wait until presidential election morning before discovering that your agent’s phone battery is dead.
That is political Ludo. And it’s like that’s the game the opposition is addicted to while Jagaban is playing world-class chess.
The opposition didn’t show up in style to test their systems in Osun and will then wonder why nothing works in 2027 when they get there. A good soldier does not get to the real frontlines of war before testing his rifle.
Never underestimate the Jagaban of Borgu
This is where people misunderstand my commentary on Tinubu. I will continue to profess my neutrality even if nobody believes me. The opposition thinks I am a mole for Tinubu, while the Tinubu camp believes I am a bastard Yoruba who is pointing out his father’s house with his left hand — though I am a natural leftist with permission from my father.
Truth is, saying a man is strategically formidable is not the same thing as supporting him. You underestimate formidable opponents at your own peril.
Jagaban did not arrive at Aso Rock because somebody mistakenly left the gate open.
This man has been building political networks for decades.
He understands alliances.
He understands patronage.
He understands timing.
He understands when to fight.
He understands when to retreat.
And perhaps most importantly: He understands when losing a battle can help win a war.
That is chess.
So here is my warning to the opposition
Stop celebrating every apparent setback for APC as though Jagaban has suddenly forgotten politics.
Ask yourself: What does this move make possible next?
What narrative does it create?
What defence does it provide?
What suspicion does it neutralize?
What does it make Nigerians believe?
And where does it position the pieces for 2027?
Because while some people are screaming: “APC LOST OSUN!”
Baba may be somewhere quietly asking:
“Good. Now where is their King?”
I don’t know exactly what moves are coming next. Nobody outside that legendary Bourdillon “War Room” does, and those who were there are not telling.
But I know enough about Nigerian politics to recognize when a pawn may be more valuable dead than alive.
And my Fadeyi political antenna is telling me: WATCH OSUN.
Watch the narrative that follows.
Watch what APC spokesmen start saying.
Watch how often Osun gets cited as proof of INEC’s independence.
And most importantly… WATCH 2027.
Because Baba may be playing chess while the opposition may still be playing Ludo.
Osun may simply be the opening gambit.
As I told a friend recently, “Baba yen deep gan ni o.” (Jagaban is very deep o.)
We are watching. We are calculating. And, as usual, I am observing and commenting live from my Mayor’s Balcony in Fadeyi.
Important disclaimer before somebody calls DSS O!
Please NOTE that this entire analysis is the product of the hyperactive political imagination of the Mayor of Fadeyi and represents my personal opinion, interpretation and speculation based on how I have observed the political chessboard over the years.
Please NOTE that I am NOT accusing President Tinubu, APC, INEC, Jagaban, Baba, anybody’s Baba, anybody’s boys, or even the innocent chess pieces of committing any crime, rigging any election, sacrificing any pawn, loading any BVAS 2.0, or planning any wuruwuru whatsoever. Ejoor o!
Let it be known to all that where I connect dots, please remember that the dots themselves have not confessed that they are connected! These are only fair-comment political observations and opinions — NOT allegations of provable fact.
So before anybody carries a screenshot to Abuja saying, “See what Mayor of Fadeyi said!” please help me tell them Mayor was merely analyzing chess.
Truth is, at my age, as much as I admire Sowore, I am too old to be sleeping on a government-issued mattress because of Facebook analysis. My back will not survive it.
So:
NO ACCUSATION.
NO INSIDE INFORMATION.
NO WHISTLEBLOWING.
JUST ONE HYPERACTIVE FADEYI BRAIN CONNECTING POLITICAL DOTS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT EVEN KNOW EACH OTHER.
Mo ja!
— OPE BANWO, MAYOR OF FADEYI, CHAIRMAN, NAIJA LIVES MATTER ORG
