By Olufisayo ALEBIOSU
The man in the glare of public curiosity at this moment is the immediate past Managing Director/CEO of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), and former two-term Commissioner for Finance in Osun State. He is Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, famously known as AMBO.
Oyebamiji is in the public eye because, as the flag-bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC), nothing can be taken for granted regarding the forthcoming August 8, 2026, governorship election in Osun State. This stands in sharp contradistinction to the projections of independent analysts concerning Ekiti State where, barring the mother-of-all-electoral upsets, incumbent Governor Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji, aka BAO, appears assured of a resounding victory.
On his part, Oyebanji is in a position to dictate the course of events amidst the whimper of dissent, as the countdown begins for whatever remains of the disparate and increasingly confused ‘alternative’ to the incumbent governor of Ekiti State. They lack a coherent, strategic imperative to mount a credible challenge. The Ekiti election appears to be a done deal in favour of BAO.
Osun is a different ballgame! There will be twists, turns, and tales of the unexpected. The APC candidate in Osun must give great kudos to the interventions of the presidency, whose deft moves have doused the tensions arising from Oyebamiji’s consensus candidacy. His rivals have clearly calculated that it is in their interest not to take on the presidency; it is difficult to imagine any of them mounting a challenge from any quarter. At worst, they will sit it out – a move they likely view as being in their own interest, however ill-advised it may seem. Indeed, this is a big win for AMBO’s prospects! It is, however, not a done deal.
Legitimate questions can – and should – be asked about the strength of the APC on the ground. From ward to ward, local government to local government, and across every senatorial district: how robust is the party’s organizational structure for a ‘get-out-the-vote’ effort? The Osun governorship election could ultimately be decided by the swiftness of voter turnout.
A key factor that must be reiterated in any calculation is that Osun added 189,000 new names to its registration roll – the highest increase nationwide. Why this is the case, and how it came to be, remains the critical question. Anyone seriously planning to win this election must provide a sharp, analytical explanation for this phenomenon. The situation is intriguing precisely because there is no evidence of a coordinated, systematic voter registration drive typical of more politically sophisticated societies.
There must be a reason why political engagement is higher in Osun than in any other state, including the Federal Capital Territory, FCT. It is in the interest of AMBO and his presumably data-driven strategists to decipher this surge in voter registration and determine who the ultimate beneficiary will be. This increase must be analyzed according to its distribution across local governments and senatorial districts; such a breakdown will be not only revealing but vital to any political permutations.
Clearly, Oyebamiji’s strategists have their work cut out for them, especially regarding the demographic composition of these new registrants. If, as expected, the figures favour the under-30s, they must develop a specific strategy to mobilize and convince these first-time voters to support their cause.
They will face stiff opposition from the camp of the incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, who is now flying the flag of the Accord Party. Whether they like it or not, Adeleke possesses a formidable tool for mobilizing first-time voters: the pulling power of his nephew, popularly known as Davido.
We have seen from past elections in the USA, South Africa, Uganda, and elsewhere that pop stars resonate with and influence the voting intentions of younger demographics. Any serious political permutations must take this into account when crafting electioneering strategies. The election, provided it is free and fair, could hinge on this factor. They had better develop a youth-centered mobilization strategy that can be fine-tuned as the campaign progresses.
The Oyebamiji campaign must be issue-based. As a former Commissioner of Finance, the candidate must be prepared to provide convincing answers to lingering questions regarding ‘Afusa’ – the period of half-salary payments in Osun State which Governor Adeleke has verifiably cleared. This is a savvy move by the ‘Dancing Governor,’ even as he continues to dance ‘wùrùwúrú’ around the substantive answers. There are thousands of direct and indirect beneficiaries of these payments, most of whom likely hold voter cards. It is the philosophy of the ‘smoke screen’, where the objective isn’t to solve a crisis, but to manufacture the appearance of a solution long enough to survive the next news cycle.
‘Wùrùwúrú to the answer’ privileges the hollow image of progress over the tangible substance of a full stomach or a secure home. Ultimately, this turns leadership into a cruel magic trick: the audience loses their livelihood while the magician stands back, waiting for applause. This reality isn’t just messy, it is fundamentally dishonest. In a tenure of ‘wùrùwúrú’ and shadows, Adeleke will want to cash his IOUs and Oyebamiji must be proactive and sharply articulate in handling this issue.
AMBO is a seasoned banker and administrator who has spent over 30 years building a reputation for excellence. A Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Bankers, he cut his teeth in the banking industry before moving into public service to help reposition the finances of Osun State. During his time as the Managing Director of the Osun State Investment Company Limited (OSICOL) and later as the Commissioner for Finance, he was the silent engine behind the state’s economic survival during some of its toughest years. As the MD/CEO of NIWA, AMBO worked hard to turn our waterways into a major hub for business and safety.
A deep-rooted community man and the Asiwaju of Ikireland, Oyebamiji is the perfect example of an ‘Omoluabi’ – someone who stays humble and keeps his word despite his high office. Love him or hate him, what sets AMBO apart is his ability to handle complex financial issues while staying connected to the needs of the ordinary man on the street. As a loyal leader in the APC, he has become a trusted voice for reform and a bridge-builder who believes that governance must always be about the people.
It is going to be a rigorous battle across the complexities of the three senatorial districts or, as some people have argued, Osun State can actually be divided into six political provinces. The astute and the savvy would be in the best place to carry the day. Oyebamiji looks capable of pulling it off!
●Alebiosu wrote from Ede, Osun State.
